Strategy of inevitability: how Baku forced Yerevan and the world to recognize the new reality

The completion of the active phase of the Patriotic War in November 2020 presented Azerbaijan with a task that in many respects turned out to be more complex than the military confrontation itself. The army fulfilled its function, most of the ancestral Azerbaijani lands were liberated, but the political consolidation of this result required a different logic of action. Armenia refused to legally recognize what had happened, and Armenian society maintained a desire for revenge, which was actively fueled from the outside. France, several other states, and influential diaspora circles created an atmosphere in which Yerevan could count on international support in attempts to revise the outcome of the conflict.

As reported by BAKU.WS, this is discussed in the new issue of the Caliber.Az YouTube channel.

Baku realized that a simple declaration of victory in the absence of recognition from the adversary and world power centers leaves the final resolution of the conflict in a suspended state. Armenia could use this situation to mobilize external resources and to preserve hope for a return to the ideas of "miatsum."

The Azerbaijani leadership chose a strategy of consistently combining the diplomatic process with targeted forceful actions. These actions were not chaotic episodes; each operation had a specific goal and was integrated into the overall logic of pressure on Yerevan. Baku demonstrated that it was ready to use all available tools to protect its interests, and that negotiations did not mean abandoning the forceful enforcement of its just demands.

Already in December 2020, an incident occurred in the area of the villages of Kehna Taglar and Chaylakkala in the Khojavend region. At that time, a special operation was conducted by our units to neutralize a group of Armenian saboteurs. The Armenian side tried to gain a foothold in these villages, and it was counting on the then deputy commander of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, General Andrey Volkov. It went so far that when things didn't go according to the Armenian plan, General Volkov personally arrived on an armored personnel carrier in the zone of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces operation, trying to stop it. However, our military did not stand on ceremony with him - Volkov was surrounded and subsequently evacuated with an admonition not to interfere in matters that were not his concern. Today we can speak about this directly: these actions were carefully calculated. Baku made it clear that the presence of Russian peacekeepers did not change the fundamental fact of Azerbaijani sovereignty over the territory. The peacekeeping mission was perceived as a temporary observation format, not as a form of international administration or protectorate.

During 2021-2022, a series of operations followed in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan and along the conditional border with Armenia. In March 2022, Mount Farrukh and the settlement of the same name were liberated. On August 3, 2022, as a result of the "Retaliation" operation carried out by Azerbaijani army units, the heights of Gyrkgyz, Sarybaba, and a number of other important