The Fine Line of Diplomacy: South Caucasus in the Shadow of the Iran-Israel Conflict

The beginning of a war between Iran and Israel will inevitably lead to serious consequences for the entire Middle East and adjacent regions, including the South Caucasus.

Located between the Black and Caspian Seas, our region has historically served as a bridge between Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Europe. In the context of a conflict involving Iran, the geopolitical significance of the South Caucasus inevitably increases, but at the same time, its vulnerability to external challenges also grows, writes the newspaper "Caspian".

Azerbaijan in the focus of provocations

Azerbaijan, as Iran's closest neighbor, has found itself at the center of attention. In recent years, Baku has built close relations with Israel, especially in the field of military-technical cooperation. Israel supplies Azerbaijan with modern weapons, reconnaissance equipment, and air defense technologies, which has repeatedly caused irritation in Tehran. Often, high-ranking Iranian military and spiritual leaders have openly spoken about the danger allegedly emanating from Azerbaijan, pointing to the possible presence of Israeli military facilities on the neighbor's territory. At the same time, the Azerbaijani leadership has repeatedly refuted these assumptions both in words and deeds, emphasizing that it will not allow its territory to be used in actions against neighbors, including Iran. Azerbaijan is categorically against involvement in any scenarios of external forces that could lead to military confrontation on its territory.

Recent exercises of special units of Azerbaijan and Iran in the border areas of the two countries were aimed, among other things, at convincing the Iranian side that nothing threatens it from Azerbaijani territory.

In general, in recent months, the Azerbaijani-Iranian dialogue has largely stabilized. A serious impetus to this was given by the official visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Azerbaijan. Of particular significance was the fact that Pezeshkian is an ethnic Azerbaijani who has often publicly defended the rights of Iranian Azerbaijanis. It is no coincidence that during and after the visit, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Iran referred to each other as nothing less than "brother."

Of course, this circumstance does not eliminate the risk of possible provocations that could create new tensions in relations between the two countries. Recently, some media and social networks began to spread information that Azerbaijan is allegedly recruiting ethnic Azerbaijanis as agents and placing them in Iran on behalf of Israel. This statement was refuted by the Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan, Hikmet Hajiyev, who stated that it was all fiction. He added that Azerbaijan strongly rejects such fake and groundless statements and urged not to believe such kinds of misinformation.

At the same time, the spread of fake news may be part of a hybrid war, a pretext for provocations from Iran.

Zero hour for the Zangezur Corridor

The development of the conflict creates additional conditions for close coordination between Turkey and Azerbaijan, between whose presidents a telephone conversation has already taken place on this topic. Armenia, which has complex relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, has long maintained a close dialogue with Iran. In the context of an escalating conflict, this axis may gain new significance - for Yerevan, the Iranian direction remains one of the few ways out of economic isolation. However, in the case of a large-scale war, the Armenian-Iranian border may be threatened - both due to possible sanctions and as a result of disruptions in logistics. Armenia also risks finding itself in a difficult diplomatic position between the strengthening Western course and the need to maintain neutrality towards Iran, with which it has close trade and energy ties.

The continuing escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel could lead to a revision of Iran's position on the Zangezur Corridor - not only one of the key infrastructural but also geopolitical projects