The manat exchange rate forecast for 2026 has been released

Azerbaijan will continue to maintain a stable exchange rate of the manat against the US dollar at the level of 1.7.

As BAKU.WS reports, S&P Global Ratings has published updated economic forecasts for Azerbaijan.

It is noted that regular currency interventions by the Central Bank and a strong reserve position support this process. As of October 31, 2025, the Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves reached $11.4 billion (approximately equivalent to four months of current payments), creating a significant buffer against projected oil prices. However, due to the economy's high dependence on hydrocarbon revenues, a managed exchange rate adjustment in the long term cannot be ruled out if oil prices are low.

The current exchange rate regime stabilizes inflation but limits the Central Bank's ability to conduct monetary policy. Deposit dollarization, which was 55% before the pandemic, has now decreased to 29%, which is explained by higher interest rates on manat deposits and exchange rate stability. However, dollarization remains sensitive to confidence, and in case of currency pressure, the population may quickly switch to foreign currency.