Pragmatism versus illusions: Azerbaijan warns

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan issued a harsh statement on December 9 regarding the new strategic document between the European Union and Armenia, planned for the next seven years.

Baku emphasized that it considers fundamentally unacceptable the very fact of including in the bilateral EU-Armenia document wording and provisions directly affecting Azerbaijan, as this not only goes beyond the mandate of such an agreement but also damages the prospects for relations between Azerbaijan and the European Union.

Key irritant

The key irritant was the wording used in the document "Karabakh Armenians displaced as a result of Azerbaijan's military operations," which, according to Baku's assessment, distorts the real events. The Azerbaijani side insists that these are Armenian residents who voluntarily left for Armenia after rejecting Azerbaijan's proposed reintegration plan, not forcibly displaced persons, and especially not "refugees." Equating this category to refugee status and making this issue one of the partnership priorities between the EU and Armenia is viewed in Baku as a clear manifestation of bias and an attempt to politically revive the Karabakh agenda in a new humanitarian shell, writes the newspaper "Caspian."

Additional irritation was caused by the document's reference to the need for "full, immediate and effective implementation of all relevant decisions" of the International Court, which Azerbaijan interpreted as a veiled reference to Armenia's claims against Azerbaijan and as an element of foreign policy pressure built into the bilateral EU-Armenia architecture. A particularly harsh reaction was provoked by the inclusion in the list of "prisoners" of persons of Armenian origin accused and convicted of crimes against humanity and war crimes, with their release being put forward as a separate partnership priority.

Baku justifiably believes that this is a gross distortion of reality and direct interference in the internal judicial and legal sphere of a sovereign state. Collectively, all these provisions allowed Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry to conclude that the EU-Armenia document in its current form goes beyond neutral strategic planning and actually establishes a one-sided, Armenian-centric interpretation of Karabakh processes, which became the basis for demanding its revision and warning about possible retaliatory measures.

Baku signals

With its statement, the Azerbaijani side signals that any attempt to consolidate the Karabakh agenda in European documents in an interpretation that contradicts the real state of affairs will be perceived as political pressure and interference in internal affairs. This objectively complicates the post-conflict agenda.

In conditions of competition among external players for influence in the South Caucasus, this creates for Brussels the risk of partially losing leverage over regional processes, while Baku, in case of the EU maintaining a hard line, receives additional incentives to deepen cooperation with alternative centers of power.

Finally, at a symbolic level, the current crisis reflects a deeper problem of divergent political interpretations of post-war reality in the region. If the EU continues to include in its policy documents wording that Azerbaijan considers undermining its sovereignty and legal position, this will mean a gradual transition from pragmatic partnership to a model of limited, selective interaction. In this case, Azerbaijani-European relations risk moving into a phase of restrained interaction, where economic interdependence will persist, but political trust and depth of strategic dialogue will significantly decrease.

Hidden revanchism will not pass!

Of course, in Baku they do not want events to develop according to such a scenario - on the contrary, they emphasize their interest in maintaining a constructive and mutually respectful dialogue with the European Union. The Azerbaijani side consistently makes it clear that it does not oppose the very format of the EU's strategic partnership with Armenia and does not dispute Brussels' right to develop bilateral relations with Yerevan. However, Baku considers strict EU neutrality on issues affecting Azerbaijan's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and internal legal processes as a fundamental condition for such interaction. It is going