Strong magnetic storms possible on Earth in the next 4 years

Solar activity, which will peak in 2025, will gradually decrease over the next four years, however, powerful flares on the star and magnetic storms on Earth are possible during this period. This was reported by the head of the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy at the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Sergey Bogachev, in an interview with RIA Novosti.

"The cycle will slowly decline for about four years. And during this period, unexpected, very strong events, powerful flares and storms are possible," he said.

According to the scientist, similar cases have already been observed in the past: for example, the record flare of the 21st century occurred in 2003 - two years after the cycle peak, and the strongest flare of the next cycle was recorded in 2017, three years after the maximum.

Bogachev noted that solar cycles resemble Earth's climate - just as snow can sometimes fall on Earth in May, anomalous flares are possible on the Sun even with a general decrease in activity. Only two or three years are usually truly "quiet." In the current cycle, according to forecasts, these will be 2029-2030 and possibly partially 2031, he added.

Processes on the Sun directly affect the operation of satellites, energy systems, and human health, which is why scientists from Perm Polytech and the Polytechnic School have developed a unique model capable of predicting solar activity 11 years in advance. This was reported to "Gazeta.Ru" by the press service of the scientific institution.

As explained by the project leader, PNIPU master's student Georgy Tashkinov, the calculations allow reproducing the 11-year cycles of solar activity with an accuracy of over 90% compared to historical data for the last 40-50 years.