Why is the Caspian Sea shrinking and will the water return?

The Caspian Sea, the largest enclosed body of water on the planet, has faced a serious problem - the water level, which continues to rapidly decline. This causes concern among scientists and environmentalists, as the consequences affect not only nature but also the economies of adjacent countries.

Main causes of shallowing

1. Global warming and evaporation

One of the main causes is global climate change. Rising air temperatures have led to intensive evaporation of water from the Caspian's surface. This is especially pronounced in its southern areas, where heat intensifies, and water evaporates faster than rivers and precipitation can replenish it.

2. Reduction of river flow

The Volga River, which provides up to 80% of all water inflow to the Caspian Sea, has been decreasing the volume of water entering the sea in recent years. This is related to both climate changes and active human activities, including the construction of reservoirs and dams that retain and regulate water flows.

3. Losses through Kara-Bogaz-Gol

An additional factor is the Kara-Bogaz-Gol bay, located in Turkmenistan. This body of water annually takes significant volumes of water from the Caspian, which then quickly evaporates, exacerbating the process of the sea's shallowing.

Where does the water go?

Water from the Caspian Sea predominantly leaves through evaporation and as a result of outflow to Kara-Bogaz-Gol. Since the Caspian has no outlet to the World Ocean, any water losses become critical, as the sea is unable to replenish them naturally through oceanic currents and tides.

Is water return possible?

Scientists differ in their opinions about whether the Caspian Sea level will recover. Some researchers believe that under favorable conditions, such as increased river flow and normalization of climatic factors, the level may stabilize or even begin to rise. However, predicting exact timeframes or guaranteeing recovery is currently impossible due to the complexity and variability of natural processes.

Consequences of shallowing

The decline in the Caspian Sea level has large-scale ecological and economic consequences:

• Ecological problems: Natural habitats of Caspian species are shrinking, particularly for the unique Caspian seal and sturgeon fish, leading to ecosystem disruption.

• Economic losses: The fishing industry suffers from changes in fish habitat conditions, the number of fish decreases, which affects industrial catches. Port infrastructure and shipping also face difficulties as waters recede, leaving port facilities beyond the reach of water transport.

The Caspian Sea today is at a crossroads. It is necessary to develop and implement comprehensive measures to preserve the water balance and minimize the negative impact of climate change. The future of this unique body of water and its adjacent regions depends on decisions made now.