World Bank warns of risk of new crisis

Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz triggered the largest oil crisis in history, resulting in supply cuts of approximately 10 million barrels per day. Even after pulling back from peak levels, the Brent price in mid-April was more than 50% above its level at the beginning of the year.

As reported by Interfax, World Bank experts expect the average price of this oil benchmark in 2026 to be $86 per barrel, compared to $69 per barrel in 2025. This forecast assumes an improvement in conditions in the Strait of Hormuz as early as May and a gradual recovery of supplies to pre-war levels by the end of 2026.

Prices for non-ferrous metals, including aluminum, copper, and tin, are expected to reach historic highs, driven in part by increased demand from data centers and electric vehicle manufacturers.

The cost of precious metals will rise by an average of 42% in 2026 due to heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty.

The war is hitting the global economy in waves: first energy prices rise, then food prices, followed by accelerating inflation that pushes central banks to raise interest rates, making borrowing more expensive, noted World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill.

"The hardest hit will be the poorest segments of the population, who spend the largest share of their income on food and fuel, as well as developing countries already struggling under high debt burdens," he said.

The World Bank's new baseline forecast assumes that the average inflation rate in developing countries in 2026 will be 5.1%, which is a full percentage point above the January forecast. In 2025, the figure was 4.7%. The growth forecast for economies in this group of countries has been lowered by 0.4 percentage points to 3.6%.

Commodity prices could rise even further in the event of an escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict or a longer-than-expected resolution of its supply disruption consequences. In the case of new strikes on oil and gas infrastructure and a slower recovery of energy exports, the average Brent price in 2026 could reach $115 per barrel.

Under the adverse scenario, inflation in developing countries this year could reach 5.8%, the highest level since 2022.