ADB: Azerbaijan's economy will grow by 2.4% in 2025

30 Sep 2025 10:09

Economy 5

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts Azerbaijan's economic growth in 2025 at 2.4%, and in 2026 at 2%.

Report informs about this with reference to the data from the ADB's September review.

The assessment of Azerbaijan's GDP growth for 2025 has been downgraded by 1 percentage point compared to the April forecast, and the forecast for 2026 by 1.3 percentage points.

"The reduction in hydrocarbon production has slowed Azerbaijan's economic growth in the first half of 2025. While the economy grew by 4.3% in the same period of 2024, in 2025 the growth rate decreased to 1.5%. The main reason was a 3.1% reduction in the hydrocarbon sector, while the non-oil economy showed growth of 3.9%.

Oil production decreased by 5.3%, and gas by 0.4%, which led to a decline in industrial production by 0.5% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the construction sector showed growth of 8.5% thanks to increased government investment in restoration projects.

The services sector slowed by almost half: from 6.1% in the first half of 2024 to 3.1% in 2025, which is associated with lower rates of development in transport and communications. At the same time, agriculture accelerated - growth was 1.4% compared to 0.2% a year earlier, helped by increased crop production," the report states.

According to the bank's forecasts, moderate economic growth rates will continue until the end of 2026.

Recall that Azerbaijan's Ministry of Economy forecasts GDP growth in 2025 at 3%, and in 2026 at 2.9%. In January-August 2025, the country's economy grew by 1%.

Forecasts from international rating agencies vary: S&P Global expects growth in 2025-2026 at 2% per year, Fitch Ratings - 3.5% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, Moody's - 2.5% per year.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts growth of 3.5% and 2.5% for 2025-2026 respectively. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts Azerbaijan's economic growth in 2025 at 2%, in 2026 - 2.5%, while the World Bank expects economic growth in Azerbaijan at 2.6% in 2025, and 2.4% in 2026.