Russia is increasing its military presence in Armenia: what is Moscow plotting? - Expert opinions

Moscow significantly strengthens its military presence in Armenia. In recent weeks, a large amount of military equipment and ammunition has been delivered to the 102nd Russian base in Gyumri. Several planes with military cargo from the Russian Federation land in Armenia daily. Armenian media report this. The purpose of the supplies is unknown, but various hypotheses are being put forward. According to one version, Russia is thus preparing for possible changes in the region, despite its outwardly calm position on the issue of its further presence in the Republic of Armenia.

What is very curious about what this means? What specific goals and objectives could explain such actions by Moscow? Is this a signal to Pashinyan?

These questions were answered for Media.Az by well-known experts on the region. According to Sergey Danilov, Deputy Director of the Kyiv Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Russia is trying to hide military equipment supplies to Iran in this way.

"It's no secret that there was an agreement between Israel and Russia: those types of weapons that the other side vetoed were not supplied to Iran and Ukraine. Thus, the Islamic republic did not receive a batch of Su-35 fighters, and military-technical cooperation between Kyiv and Tel Aviv was virtually frozen. Even humanitarian initiatives, such as providing Ukraine with an early missile warning system for civilians, were implemented extremely slowly. However, everything changed against the backdrop of the 12-day war. The Russian Federation took an unequivocally pro-Iranian position, and after the end of this short conflict, Russian military transport aircraft began making regular flights to Tehran. The pro-Iranian, and therefore anti-Israeli position was accompanied by a propaganda campaign in Russian media," he says.

As S. Danilov noted, in Tel Aviv, such actions were regarded as a violation of previous agreements. As a result, the Israeli Foreign Minister visited Kyiv, and residents of the Ukrainian capital during the last Shahed-missile attack discovered that air alerts were being announced much earlier.

"The signal was heard in the Russian Federation: a visit by a large group of propagandists to Israel was instantly agreed upon with the task of writing a series of positive materials about the country they had recently been defaming. Therefore, there is a small possibility that the Russian side decided to hide military equipment supplies, using the base in Gyumri as a logistics hub, from which there are more chances to continue supplies covertly by land. But this version has a weak side – Israel seems to have extraordinary capabilities to conduct intelligence on Iranian territory, and such disguise is unlikely to help," the expert believes.

In his view, more traditional versions are related to the deterioration of Russia's relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia.

"Even a slight increase in Russian forces and resources is a very clear signal to countries that Moscow may consider a forceful scenario. Especially if it continues to lose in its bets on pro-Russian forces in Armenia. In Eastern and Northern Europe, the likelihood of a sharp escalation from the Russian Federation is also being actively discussed now. No one in the region has doubts about the Kremlin's aggressive plans – the discussion only revolves around the possibilities of their implementation. By the way, one of the conditions for starting a war in the Baltic could be the availability of alternative ports, for example in Iran.

Russia's attack on Ukraine was illogical and counterproductive for Moscow. The probability of invasion in 2022 was assessed by many as quite low based precisely on rational arguments. Now there is no reason to believe that the Russian Federation has changed in three years," S. Danilov is convinced.

In turn, Azerbaijani security expert Ilham Ismayil said that at a time when Russia's war with Ukraine continues, strengthening the base in Gyumri may seem illogical at first glance.

"However, it should be noted that military supplies to Armenia coincided with a period of tense relations with Baku. For Russia, the South Caucasus has strategic importance as a Eurasian region with the potential to influence the North Caucasus. That is why it demonstratively promotes the transfer of weapons and ammunition to Gyumri, believing that this is a deterrent for the states of the region