Warnings in Kazakhstan about further drop in Caspian Sea levels by the end of the decade

The Caspian Sea level may decrease by almost half a meter by 2030 if current climatic and anthropogenic trends persist.

As reported by BAKU.WS, this was announced to TASS by the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Kazakhstan.

The ministry clarified that since 2006, the Caspian Sea level has already decreased by more than two meters. According to observation stations as of October 2025, the average values were minus 29.48 m according to the Baltic height system in the northeastern part of the sea and minus 29.54 m in the east. Kazakhstani researchers have calculated that by 2030, the indicator may drop to minus 29.9 m.

The Caspian Sea level historically fluctuates under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors. Systematic observations from 1900 to 2024 show an overall decrease of almost four meters. The main source of water remains the Volga River, which has numerous hydraulic structures. Climate change also has a significant impact.

The Ministry noted that the average annual air temperature is rising: for the period 1976-2024, the increase was +0.19°C for every 10 years globally, +0.36°C for Kazakhstan, and +0.51°C for the Caspian region. The temperature increase enhances evaporation, which also contributes to the sea level drop.

The ministry reminded that a Regional Environmental Summit will be held in Astana in April 2026. One of the key topics of the panel session will be the problem of the Caspian Sea level decline and measures that can be taken within the framework of regional cooperation.