Tension point: why Armenia's actions in the Gazakh direction cannot be considered accidental

The events recorded on April 7, 2025, at the Gazakh section of the conditional border between Azerbaijan and Armenia clearly indicate Yerevan's transition to a new phase of tactical activity near Azerbaijani settlements. These actions are not accidental - on the contrary, they fit into a chain of systematic steps aimed at destabilizing the situation and creating hotbeds of tension in the border area, writes Caliber.Az.

As the publication learned, on April 7 in the afternoon (at 18:15) in an area near the village of Ikinci Shikhly in Gazakh district, at a distance of approximately 115 meters from the conditional border, activity of the Armenian side was recorded at one of the forward positions. There were two servicemen at this post, one of whom deliberately aimed large-caliber small arms toward Azerbaijani territory. Although no fire was opened, the action itself was overtly demonstrative and provocative.

Such steps are not a manifestation of nervousness at the frontline or episodic improvisation. This is an element of a structured scheme of tactical pressure, where every movement is calculated, and the goal is to create manageable tension. Armenia is betting on psychological impact: the threat is obvious, but there is no formal violation. This behavior model allows Yerevan to form a false narrative about "stability" while actually destabilizing the situation. And each such gesture is a signal built into the strategy of gradually escalating the situation along the entire line of contact.

Much more alarming is another episode recorded on the same day from the area near the village of Kemerli in Gazakh district. Video surveillance systems recorded the deployment of 12 artillery pieces - 122-mm D-30 howitzers - at the position of the Armenian Armed Forces, located approximately 6 km from the conditional border. These not-so-modern artillery systems remain a fully functional fire tool and are capable of hitting targets deep within Azerbaijani territory, including both military facilities and elements of civilian infrastructure. It is fundamentally important that the guns were aimed at objects on the territory of Azerbaijan. This is not about equipment storage or rotation - this is a clear combat deployment, with the possibility of immediate use.

The guns used are of Soviet design, long integrated into the Armenian fire support system. But in this case, attention is drawn not to the type of weapon itself, but to the circumstances and location of its deployment. What is more important is why howitzers are being brought to positions in the border strip right now. In this context, it becomes obvious that this is about preparation for provocation.

In this context, a legitimate question may arise: why are outdated artillery systems being moved to forward positions, and not modern models supplied to Armenia by France and India? After all, it is known that recently Paris and New Delhi have increased efforts to pump Armenia with modern weapons. The answer, in fact, is obvious. Such guns are well mastered and do not require complex technical support. Their task is not to provide high-precision targeting, but to form a constant presence and maintain the visual element of threat. Modern systems, most likely, are concentrated in depth, in reserve, for more specific tasks. Thus, at the frontline, a connection is created: pressure - due to old but reliable equipment; operational maneuver - due to new weapons that are out of direct sight.

However, both the Armenian leadership and its allies should understand: Azerbaijan tracks all enemy activity. Nothing remains unnoticed. Our country has the necessary intelligence means. Appropriate intelligence analysis is carried out to not just record what is happening, but also to understand its causes. We will not allow ourselves to be drawn into an imposed scenario, but we will not leave any threat to our security unanswered, especially in those regions where civilians live.

The actions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces have always been precise, measured, and proportionate. If the Armenian side goes for direct provocation, then it should know: Baku is ready to respond. Respond as the situation requires, based on law, facts, and complete military superiority.

There are no random coincidences in military logistics. Aiming weapons, deploying artillery, synchronicity of actions - this is not spontaneity, this is preparation. And it has not gone unnoticed.