Iranian Gambit: How Tehran is Trying to Buy Time in the Confrontation with the USA

Iran on the brink: combat readiness, threats, and the delicate game of diplomacy

Iranian leadership has put its armed forces on high alert - a step that seems inevitable against the backdrop of increasing threats of strikes from the US, its allies, or Israel. Loud statements are coming from Tehran: the country is ready for war and does not rule out a retaliatory strike on the strategic island of Diego Garcia, where the largest American base in the Indian Ocean is located. Donald Trump's offer of direct negotiations was met with a categorical refusal, but, as Reuters reports, Tehran has hinted at readiness for indirect dialogue through Oman's mediation.

At first glance, this inspires cautious hope. Iran, albeit indirectly, is leaving the door for negotiations slightly open. The refusal of direct contact with Washington is understandable: in the eastern tradition, this would mean "losing face" after harsh statements from the US, and within the country, such a step could turn into chaos for the authorities. But experienced observers know: behind Tehran's external openness often lies tactics.

Masterful playing for time

Iran has always declared readiness for dialogue - whether "doves" or "hawks" were in power in the US. However, this readiness rarely translated into real agreements. Diplomats of the Islamic Republic are virtuosos of delay: they endlessly discuss details, avoiding the essence. The very fact of negotiations for Tehran is insurance against war, regardless of their outcome. Today, it seems, this strategy is at work again. Iran's position is precarious: the threat of a strike is real, but concessions in negotiations are political suicide. Trump, a master of tough deals, is unlikely to offer soft terms, especially after the failure of his promise to end the Ukrainian conflict "in 24 hours." He needs a loud triumph, while Iran sees salvation in waiting.

But what do they think in Washington? The US may reject "negotiations for the sake of negotiations" and accelerate preparation for a forceful scenario. Iran's geopolitical failures only add fuel to the fire: Hezbollah has been defeated by Israel, the Assad regime has fallen with Turkey's support, the Houthis in Yemen are under attack. Tehran limits itself to words, losing control over allies. The difference between attacks on proxies and a strike on Iran itself is great, but Tehran has already lost the psychological war. The risk of escalation remains extremely high.

Shadow in the Caucasus: Iran and Azerbaijan

In this tense context, Iran's relations with its neighbors, especially with Azerbaijan, play a special role. Baku, having a strategic position and "soft power," sought good neighborliness with Tehran. But Iran responded differently. A recent shocking incident: officers of the "Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps" tried to organize the assassination of Azerbaijan's chief Ashkenazi rabbi Shneor Segal, hiring a drug dealer in Georgia for this. This is reminiscent of the murder of Rabbi Zvi Kogan in the UAE - another blow to countries seeking peace.

But this is not an isolated case. The Iranian trail stretches through a series of attacks in Azerbaijan: an assassination attempt on the head of Ganja, riots in Ganja and Nardaran, the murder of scientist Ziya Buniatov, plots against embassies. Attacks on Baku's diplomatic missions - in Great Britain and Iran itself, where an employee was killed - became the last straw. Only the professionalism of the security prevented a massacre.

The choice is Tehran's

For Iran, these actions are more than they seem. Azerbaijan proved its loyalty by rejecting the role of an anti-Iranian foothold. But Baku is not willing to tolerate the terrorist threat. Now the ball is in Tehran's court. One wants to believe that they realize: the price of escalation could be fatal - both for the region and for the Islamic Republic itself.

Source: Minval