Ministry of Finance: Changes in oil prices could affect the State Oil Fund's assets by up to $1.8 billion

A change in oil prices of $5-20 above or below the baseline forecast could affect the balance of Azerbaijan's consolidated budget and the assets of the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ).

As reported by BAKU.WS with reference to Report, this is stated in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework for 2027-2030, prepared by the Ministry of Finance.

According to the baseline scenario, by 2030, SOFAZ assets will amount to $73.9 billion. Depending on changes in oil prices, they may differ from the baseline figure by approximately $0.9–1.8 billion.

In 2027, the ratio of the consolidated budget balance to GDP in the baseline scenario is projected at minus 2%. In alternative scenarios, this indicator may differ by 1.4-2.7 percentage points.

The document notes that the significant share of the oil and gas sector in state budget revenues and exports makes changes in prices and production volumes important factors affecting budget and macroeconomic indicators. A decline in oil prices relative to the forecast could lead to a reduction in oil and gas revenues, a deterioration of the consolidated budget balance, and a decrease in SOFAZ assets.

At the same time, the probability of oil prices falling below $65 per barrel next year is assessed as low, and fiscal risks associated with changes in oil prices are considered limited.