Historical event: Azerbaijan exports gas to Ukraine

On July 28, the export of Azerbaijani natural gas to Ukraine began. This event became historic in the context of bilateral relations between Kyiv and Baku.

The operator of the Ukrainian gas transportation system officially reported this important event. The supplies are carried out through the reverse system of the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline (TBP) along the Bulgaria - Romania - Moldova - Ukraine route and are the result of an agreement between NJSC "Naftogaz of Ukraine" and SOCAR Energy Ukraine, writes the newspaper "Caspian".

As noted by the Chairman of the Board of "Naftogaz" Oleksiy Chernyshov, this agreement opens "a new page in the energy history of Ukraine," allowing the country to "receive gas, bypassing Russian infrastructure, from a reliable and friendly source." SOCAR also confirmed its readiness for "long-term and mutually beneficial cooperation based on market principles and strategic mutual understanding."

From ghost pipeline to energy artery

After the full-scale transit of Russian gas through Ukraine ceased in 2020, the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline lost its significance, becoming underutilized infrastructure. However, the European Commission's efforts to diversify supplies and the development of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), including TANAP and TAP, renewed interest in the TBP - now in reverse mode.

A key step was the agreement between Bulgaria and Turkey in 2023, which provided the Bulgarian side with access to Turkish gas infrastructure. This made it possible to establish supplies of Caspian gas to Bulgaria, and the modernization of compressor stations ensured the transportation of fuel to the north. Ukraine officially confirmed that the gas entering Bulgaria successfully reached its border through Romania and Moldova.

Strategic and symbolic breakthrough

The supply volumes are still limited - about 2-3 million cubic meters per day. Nevertheless, according to the head of the "Gas TSO of Ukraine" Pavlo Stanchak, the very fact of having a route without Russia's participation is "a colossal symbolic and strategic achievement." Ukraine has gained access to gas from the South Caucasus region for the first time, bypassing the Russian gas transportation system.

As emphasized by the Vice Prime Minister for the Restoration of Ukraine Oleksandr Kubrakov, "this step not only strengthens our energy independence but also strengthens cooperation with partners who share European values."

Expansion prospects and challenges

Ukraine and Azerbaijan are already discussing the possibility of expanding supplies to 5-7 billion cubic meters per year. However, there are objective limitations. The Trans-Balkan route requires modernization: compressor stations are outdated, transit tariffs in some countries remain high, and technical throughput capacity may decrease during winter months.

In addition, according to experts from the Ukrainian energy sector, Azerbaijani gas, passing through several countries (Greece, Bulgaria, Romania), still remains more expensive than LNG supplied through European terminals. However, with long-term contracts and infrastructure expansion, pipeline gas will be more profitable.

Geopolitical context

With the cessation of Russian gas supplies, Ukraine desperately needs reliable, politically neutral fuel sources. Unlike Western European countries, Ukraine is not bound by EU directives on decarbonization, making it flexible in energy planning. This allows it to conclude long-term agreements with Azerbaijan that are not limited by the framework of the green transition.

For Azerbaijan, Ukraine represents not only a new market but also an opportunity to go beyond the increasingly regulated and politicized EU market. The Ukrainian direction allows SOCAR to diversify exports, strengthen positions in Eastern Europe, and contribute to the development of regional energy architecture.

Energy bridge between the Caspian and Europe

Azerbaijan already has pipeline infrastructure with growth potential. TANAP, designed to increase capacity from 16 to 31 billion cubic meters per year, and TAP, capable of increasing volumes from 10 to 20 billion, can become the basis for a second wave of investments in the Southern Gas Corridor. However, this requires firm contracts and stable demand, which Ukraine can provide.

Thus, gas supplies from Azerbaijan to Ukraine are not just a temporary measure but a possible beginning of a large-scale energy alliance. This partnership serves the interests of both countries: Baku gets a promising sales market, and Kyiv gets a source of stable fuel, strengthening energy security in conditions of continuing geopolitical instability.

The energy rapprochement between Ukraine and Azerbaijan is becoming another element in the redistribution of power in Eurasia, capable of influencing the configuration of pipeline geopolitics and strengthening the Turkic vector in the region's energy diplomacy.