Will the war reach the Caspian?

Recently, there has been no shortage of speculation that the Caspian Sea risks becoming another flashpoint in the near future, writes the newspaper "Caspiy." The occasion was an event that occurred on July 25, when Ukraine attacked an Iranian merchant vessel in the Caspian Sea.

According to Tehran, the strike caused an explosion on board, killing one sailor and injuring another. Iran called this a violation of the UN Charter and reserved the right to retaliatory action. Kyiv, for its part, stated that the vessel was being used to transport military cargo in Russia's interests.

Tensions are spreading

Regardless of which version is accurate, the very fact of the strike has much broader significance. For the first time, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has so explicitly affected the Caspian Sea, which until recently had remained outside the zone of direct hostilities. However, this is not the first time the consequences of Ukrainian operations have affected the interests of Caspian littoral states. Previously, infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium on Russian territory had been targeted. Formally, the strikes were aimed at Russian oil pumping stations, but the bulk of Kazakhstani oil exports passes through the CPC system. As a result, risks arose not only for Russian infrastructure but also for Kazakhstan's economy.

Now the circle of affected states has expanded even further. There are suggestions that if such strikes become regular, the interests of all five Caspian littoral states could be threatened. For Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, the Caspian is a crucial transport and energy hub. Oil and gas export routes pass through the region, the Middle Corridor is developing, and international freight volumes are growing. This is precisely why Kazakhstan had previously expressed concern about the expansion of the geography of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict beyond the traditional combat zone. And two days after the incident, on July 27, Turkmenistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an official statement calling any attacks on vessels in the Caspian Sea waters unacceptable. Ashgabat reminded that the Caspian must remain a zone of "peace, harmony, and good neighborliness."

Risks exist…

Such a reaction is entirely understandable. For international carriers and insurance companies, the very emergence of military risks in a region that had until now been considered relatively safe is of fundamental importance. Rising insurance rates, increased transportation costs, reduced attractiveness of trans-Caspian routes, and slowdowns in the implementation of infrastructure projects could become the first economic consequences of what is happening.

The legal regime of the Caspian Sea also makes the situation particularly sensitive. According to the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, signed in Aktau in 2018, the waters must be used exclusively for peaceful purposes, and vessels of