ING: Azerbaijan Shows the Most Resilient Macroeconomic Results Among CIS-4 Countries

Azerbaijan demonstrates the most stable economic indicators within the CIS-4 group of countries (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan) amid rising global energy prices and ongoing risks to the region's currencies.

As Report notes, citing the Dutch banking group ING, the growth in revenues from the oil and gas sector is strengthening the country's substantial fiscal and strategic reserves.

"This makes it possible to maintain a significant surplus in the state budget and current account, as well as to ensure a stable peg of the national currency - the manat," ING specialists emphasize.

According to analysts' assessments, the overall commodity market conditions in the region remain mixed due to logistical constraints and external factors exerting pressure on neighboring countries. At the same time, Azerbaijan's strong macroeconomic position reduces the need for urgent measures by the monetary authorities. In particular, experts expect that the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, like Armenia's regulator, will keep the key rate at 6.5% per annum against the backdrop of moderate inflation, which is forming from a relatively low base in the range of 4-6%.

Meanwhile, in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, interest rate policy decisions may be more flexible due to slowing inflationary trends and the impact of portfolio capital flows.