Oil and gas price expectations revealed

Global energy prices will continue to rise until the end of the year.

As reported by Oxu.Az, this issue was reflected in the Chamber of Accounts' conclusion on the state budget for 2027.

It is noted that the prolongation of the conflict in the Middle East, higher and more volatile energy and food prices, escalating trade tensions, changing expectations regarding the returns on technology investments, and tightening financial conditions are considered the main risks for the realization of global economic growth forecasts.

Analyses show that the contribution of fiscal and monetary instruments to economic growth next year will be limited. It is projected that in 2027, the inflation factor will limit the supportive impact of monetary policy on economic growth. It is expected that amid rising expenditures related to public debt, as well as population aging, climate change, and national security needs, fiscal policy next year will remain predominantly neutral.

It is emphasized that the supply shock caused by ongoing wars and new geopolitical tensions has driven energy prices higher in the current year, and it is projected that the growth in price indices will continue until the end of the year and will relatively slow down next year.

According to World Bank data, as of October 1, 2026, the global commodity price index rose by 47.8% year-on-year. Starting from the end of February of the current year, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to losses in global oil supplies, which caused a sharp rise in oil prices during the corresponding period. On a year-on-year basis through October 1, 2026, oil prices increased by 53.8%, natural gas by 2.3 times, and coal by 38.4%.

As a result, the energy product price index began to rise rapidly and increased by 70% over the same period.