Forecast of the Accounts Chamber regarding inflation: price increases will continue

Over the 9 months of the current year, inflation was influenced by internal and external factors, and analyses gave grounds to assert that the average annual inflation next year will be around the forecasted figure.

As reported by Oxu.Az, this issue was reflected in the conclusion of the Chamber of Accounts on the state budget for 2027.

The Chamber, citing data from the State Statistics Committee, reports that in January-September 2026, the consumer price index in the country increased by 5.7% in average annual terms. In September, annual inflation was 5.5%, and monthly inflation was 0.9%.

During the corresponding period, price increases were observed mainly in food products and paid services.

Analyses show that in the nine months of the current year, inflationary pressure was associated with both external and internal factors.

Among the main trading partners, price increases continued, which had its impact on the growth of domestic prices. Thus, the price index for imported products in average annual terms for January-August increased by 26.8% (the similar indicator for last year was 24.8%).

The depreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate index of the manat in the first half of the reporting period eliminated the downward effect of this factor on import inflation. In the subsequent months, the depreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate index was replaced by strengthening. The volatility of currencies of some trading partners during the period under review (for example, the euro, the ruble, etc.) affected the dynamics of the nominal effective exchange rate index.

Over the 9 months of the current year, the producer price index for industrial products increased by 24.7%. Growth in industrial producer prices was observed in both the oil and gas and non-oil and gas industries.

The producer price index for agricultural products increased by 3.8%, while prices for transport and warehousing services rose by 5.1%.

According to the data, inflation this year is expected at the level of 5.7%, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the initial forecast. The Chamber of Accounts, based on its analyses, holds the view that inflation will not be below the expected figure.