There won't be calm: Scientists provide magnetic storm forecast for 2026

Scientists from the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics SB RAS predict a decrease in solar activity this year, however, they warn: the number of geomagnetic storms will not decrease. According to specialists, despite the decline of the 25th solar cycle, Earth can still face serious disturbances in its magnetic field.

As reported by BAKU.WS with reference to "Rossiyskaya Gazeta," the deputy director of the institute, Doctor of Physics and Mathematics Yury Yasyukevich explained that the maximum of the 25th solar activity cycle was passed in 2024. During the decline period, there are fewer active regions on the Sun, and the configuration of its magnetic field simplifies. However, this does not mean a decrease in geomagnetic activity - according to scientists' calculations, its level in 2026 may remain comparable to the indicators of 2025.

The specialist noted that a similar situation was observed earlier - during the 23rd solar activity cycle. Then, after the peak that occurred in 2002, a significant number of powerful geomagnetic storms were recorded in 2003-2005. According to Yasyukevich, the maximum of magnetic activity usually occurs two to three years after the solar maximum.

The scientist also emphasized that the current cycle should not be compared with the 24th, which was significantly weaker. The current phase more closely resembles the decline of the 23rd cycle, when, despite the decrease in the number of active regions, the geomagnetic environment remained tense. In this regard, scientists are preparing scientific equipment in advance to observe possible events.

Meanwhile, at the end of 2025, the Sun unexpectedly showed increased activity. In the last days of the year, an increase in the number of flares was recorded, however, most of the active regions were far from the "Sun-Earth" line and could not affect space weather.

The only area potentially dangerous for Earth was the active zone No. 4317 in the northern hemisphere of the Sun. It was there that a series of flares occurred, including two strong ones. Modeling showed that as a result of these events, a medium-sized plasma cloud was ejected into space, which took about three days to reach Earth.